Emissions forecasting

Forecasting (or projecting) air pollutant and GHG future trends

Forecasting (or projecting) air pollutant and greenhouse gas trends provides a baseline and likely future scenarios.  Based on these scenarios  emission reduction targets and requirements for action can be developed. Aether’s expertise in data gathering, analysis and forecasting helps our customers to establish achievable targets for improved environmental performance and report on progress. 

Guidance on projections and policies & measures

Aether and TNO developed greenhouse gas emission projection guidelines in support of the EU's Effort Sharing Decision. This project brought together a team with long standing experience and excellence in developing and using GHG emissions projections and working with Policies and Measures at a national and international level.

EU countries are required to report information of policies and measures related to climate change every two years under the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (EU/749/2014). Aether has also been involved in the development of guidelines for Member States for reporting policies and measures under the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation, and evaluation of the data submitted. Under the new global Paris Agreement (Article 13 on “Transparency”) Parties are required to provide concise information on their Climate Action and demonstrate that they have the capacity and systems in place to track progress.

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Impacts of policies and measures

Our analysis provides information on the sectors where action is required and the evidence needed to engage stakeholders in defining and implementing action. Forecasting links closely to the analysis of impacts of actions, policies and measures. Data on the impacts of policies and measures planned or in place should be used as input into forecasting calculations to illustrate scenarios of possible future trends to help establish achievable targets.

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Case studies

Category: Cities and local authorities

Merton Council Climate Emergency Support

Aether and SE2 supported Merton Council in developing their action plan to meet targets to decarbonise the Council by 2030 and the borough of Merton by 2050

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Category: Cities and local authorities, Emission inventories, Policies and measures

Lewisham Route to Neutral

Support to Lewisham Council to define the route to carbon neutral for the Borough

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Category: National governments, Emission inventories

Irish Environmental Protection Agency

Aether supports the Irish Environmental Protection Agency with the preparation and submission of Ireland's National Emissions Inventory of Greenhouse Gases under the EU Monitoring Mechanism and Air Quality Pollutants under the National Emissions Ceiling Directive.

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Category: National governments, Policies and measures

Luxembourg Climate Action: Stakeholder engagement and reporting Portal

Aether developed an innovative online platform, or Portal, for gathering, analysing and reporting Luxembourg’s climate policies and measures. The Portal acts as a central point for stakeholder engagement and keeps a live master list of national climate actions, with associated impact and cost analysis.

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Category: National governments, Emission inventories, Policies and measures

Emission Inventory Support for Environment Agency of Iceland

Aether is supporting the Environment Agency of Iceland in the compilation of its greenhouse gas and air quality emissions inventories as well as projections and policies and measures. We are helping to ensure that Iceland’s inventory is robust and of high quality.

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Testimonials

Don't just take our word for it...

“Aether delivered training workshops and generated learning materials for our SSN members, providing technical content in a manageable and comprehendible format. We particularly benefitted from their extensive knowledge and ability to interpret the needs of our members into the training materials.”

Jennifer Anderson, Sustainable Scotland Network

“It has been a pleasure to work with Chris Dore and Richard Claxton from Aether: they did their job in a very professional and timely manner. The workshop was organized and carried out in a cooperative spirit; the information provided to the workshop participants was complete and clear.”

Alina Novikova, UN/ECE Secretariat

“Engaging Aether to support us to develop the first GHG Inventory System and first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for the United Republic of Tanzania has been a rewarding experience due to their high level of professionalism, creativity, timeliness and value for money. We will definitely consider Aether in our future initiatives.”

Abbas Kitogo, Programme Specialist Energy and Climate Change, UNDP Tanzania

“It is always an absolute pleasure working with Aether. I always know what is expected of me. Their work ethic is of a very high standard and projects are always handled in a very professional manner. I have learnt many skills in terms of project management, quality control and workshop training styles from Aether and I hope to carry these principles forward in my own work. I look forward to collaborating with Aether more in the future.”

Luanne Stevens, Gondwana

“Aether is a great partner for work in the area of European Air Emissions. The team was committed, reliable, well organised and had a deep technical understanding and motivated other partners with their good spirit.”

Umweltbundesamt: Environment Agency Austria

“Professional team and very collaborative communication. Effective result in terms of suggestions for improvement in the quality of the inventory and proposals on how to streamline specific topics.”

Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research

“Aether's approach to couple innovative visualisation with high expertise manpower delivered valuable insights for our inventory work.”

Umweltbundesamt (Germany)

“If we have a need for any more reports in the future Aether will be first on my list.”

Alan Hardy, Kyson Design

“A heartfelt thank you to all the Aether team for this very comprehensive review – this is certainly turning out to be one of the most beneficial capacity building projects I have ever been involved in.”

Saviour Vassallo, Senior Environment Protection Officer, Malta Resources Authority

“I must congratulate each of you for your professional and tireless efforts. Let me point out that this has been the 'neatest' in-country review expert review team I have coordinated, and it has been a real pleasure.”

UNFCCC Secretariat

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