Emissions forecasting

Forecasting (or projecting) air pollutant and GHG future trends

Forecasting (or projecting) air pollutant and greenhouse gas trends provides a baseline and likely future scenarios.  Based on these scenarios  emission reduction targets and requirements for action can be developed. Aether’s expertise in data gathering, analysis and forecasting helps our customers to establish achievable targets for improved environmental performance and report on progress. 

Guidance on projections and policies & measures

Aether is working with several national and local governments to develop their GHG projections based on  underlying economy drivers and planned emission reduction actions. 

Aether and TNO developed greenhouse gas emission projection guidelines in support of the EU's Effort Sharing Decision. This project brought together a team with long standing experience and excellence in developing and using GHG emissions projections and working with policies and measures at a national and international level. Aether has also developed a suite of QA/QC tools for checking and reviewing emissions projections.

EU Member States are required to report information of policies and measures, and projections, regarding climate change every two years under the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action (Regulation (EU) 2018/1999). Aether has been involved in the development of guidelines for Member States for reporting policies and measures under the Governance Regulation (and previously, under the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation), and evaluation of the data submitted. Under the global Paris Agreement (Article 13 on “Transparency”) Parties are required to provide concise information on their climate action and demonstrate that they have the capacity and systems in place to track progress.

Aether is also supporting EU Member States and the European Environment Agency on the analysis and reporting of information on their policies that reduce national air pollution emissions, as required under the National Emissions Ceiling Directive (European Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2018/1522).

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Impacts of policies and measures

Our analysis provides information on the sectors where action is required and the evidence needed to engage stakeholders in defining and implementing action. Projections link closely to the analysis of impacts of actions, policies and measures. Data on the impacts of policies and measures planned or in place should be used as input into forecasting calculations to illustrate scenarios of possible future trends to help establish achievable targets. Wider, non-emission impacts of actions should also be considered. 

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Case studies

Category: International organisations, LULUCF

EU Forest Reference Levels

Aether provided support to the European Commission and the LULUCF Expert Group in the technical assessment of EU Member State's National Forestry Accounting Plans.

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Category: Cities and local authorities, Emission inventories, Policies and measures

Merton Council Climate Emergency Support

Aether and SE2 supported Merton Council in developing their action plan to meet targets to decarbonise the Council by 2030 and the borough of Merton by 2050

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Category: Cities and local authorities, Emission inventories, Policies and measures

Lewisham Route to Neutral

Support to Lewisham Council to define the route to carbon neutral for the Borough

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Category: National governments, Emission inventories

Irish Environmental Protection Agency

Aether supports the Irish Environmental Protection Agency with the preparation and submission of Ireland's National Emissions Inventory of Greenhouse Gases under the EU Monitoring Mechanism and Air Quality Pollutants under the National Emissions Ceiling Directive.

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Category: National governments, Policies and measures

Luxembourg Climate Action: Stakeholder engagement and reporting Portal

Aether developed an innovative online platform, or Portal, for gathering, analysing and reporting Luxembourg’s climate policies and measures. The Portal acts as a central point for stakeholder engagement and keeps a live master list of national climate actions, with associated impact and cost analysis.

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Category: National governments, Emission inventories, Policies and measures

Emission Inventory Support for Environment Agency of Iceland

Aether is supporting the Environment Agency of Iceland in the compilation of its greenhouse gas and air quality emissions inventories as well as projections and policies and measures. We are helping to ensure that Iceland’s inventory is robust and of high quality.

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Testimonials

Don't just take our word for it...

“If we have a need for any more reports in the future Aether will be first on my list.”

Alan Hardy, Kyson Design

“Chris was excellent to work with and always very pro active in making suggestions, taking work forward and applying his considerable technical knowledge in effective ways.”

Robert Vaughan, Defra Air Quality Team

“Aether is a great partner for work in the area of European Air Emissions. The team was committed, reliable, well organised and had a deep technical understanding and motivated other partners with their good spirit.”

Umweltbundesamt: Environment Agency Austria

“The professional service provided by your company was of very high quality and completed within agreed timelines.”

Matthew Dudley, UNFCCC Secretariat

“The Aether team were a joy to work with and I would recommend the consultancy - the service provided throughout the process was exceptional. Where there were problems, they provided solutions. The team were working to very short time scales but were able to deliver a high quality piece of work within the specified time frame.”

Sefton Council - for the Merseyside Atmospheric Emissions Inventory

“Professional team and very collaborative communication. Effective result in terms of suggestions for improvement in the quality of the inventory and proposals on how to streamline specific topics.”

Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research

“We have been collaborating with Aether for several years, and our projects have greatly benefited from it. Aether staff are very knowledgeable, professional and flexible - and last but not least, very friendly and a pleasure to work with.”

Umhverfisstofnun, Environment Agency of Iceland

“It has been a pleasure to work with Chris Dore and Richard Claxton from Aether: they did their job in a very professional and timely manner. The workshop was organized and carried out in a cooperative spirit; the information provided to the workshop participants was complete and clear.”

Alina Novikova, UN/ECE Secretariat

“The team at Aether works very professionally and communicates very well which makes working with them a pleasure. Outputs are delivered on time to high quality. The team brings the rigour of technical knowledge and expertise and finds innovative ways of communicating complex messages. I would be happy to recommend the Aether team to organisations working on analysing and presenting emissions information in the public domain.”

Fiona Glover, States of Jersey

“Engaging Aether to support us to develop the first GHG Inventory System and first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for the United Republic of Tanzania has been a rewarding experience due to their high level of professionalism, creativity, timeliness and value for money. We will definitely consider Aether in our future initiatives.”

Abbas Kitogo, Programme Specialist Energy and Climate Change, UNDP Tanzania

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